Our Market-Timing Strategy:
We have been called "the unknown advisory service that
beats the big names!
We've been quietly outperforming them for 24 years. The reason we're unknown is that while
the 'big names' spend most of their time out on the interview and seminar
circuits promoting themselves, we keep our nose to the grindstone, working on
what our subscribers pay us to work on - constant analysis and research of the
(Click on this link for our 'Seasonal
Our Market-Timing Strategy:
All investors are market timers! -
eventually! Even those who in bull markets believe themselves
to be determined buy & hold investors.
become market timers with the worst of timing by selling
out in disgust (with large losses) at or near correction lows, when the
financial and emotional stress become unbearable. They then swear off
the 'damned market' for good, not becoming interested again until the
next rally or bull market has been underway for some time and most of
its gains have already been made.
Our strategy incorporates technical analysis where the goal
is to buy as near as possible to the correction lows and sell
as near as possible to the rally
tops, keeping our profits from the rallies, and
then making some of the gains all over again in the
In addition we often go after additional gains in market
corrections through 'inverse' ETF's and mutual funds designed
to make gains in down markets. Of course no one can get the exact
tops or bottoms, but any degree of success at all will obviously beat
buy and hold, and with less risk, as one should be out when the market
is most likely to have its problems.
non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy
can be on a buy or sell signal regardless of the season. It utilizes
technical analysis of charts, and some 35 selected and developed
technical indicators, to identify when the market has reached an
overbought or oversold condition, and downside support or overhead
resistance areas. We then use momentum reversal indicators and
money-flows to tell us when a trend has begun to reverse. Other tools
used in the decisions to issue a buy or sell signal include investor
sentiment, the activity of corporate insiders and institutional
investors, short and intermediate-term seasonal factors, and forward
looking analysis of economic conditions.
You can see a brief glimpse at how it works by
checking out the sample issue of our newsletter by clicking here.
Sample issue of
Street Smart Report newsletter.
But please realize that the newsletter is only a
small portion of the communication we provide. In total there is a lot
of almost constant communication:
Newsletter: 8 pages (every
three weeks). Mid-Week Market Updates: 6 - 8 pages, updating our short-term outlook and intermediate-term
outlook every Wednesday, with signals, charts, and commentary (except in
the weeks when the newsletter comes out on Wednesday). A 'Gold,
Bonds, Dollar, Inflation' update (4 -5 pages) of charts, signals and
research every two weeks. A similar 4-5 page 'Global Markets'
update every two weeks. Hotline updates: Every Wednesday
evening at 8 P.M. eastern regardless of whether or not there are changes
in signals or holdings. Plus additional interim
updates at any time, including during the trading day, if we have a
signal change or recommended portfolio change.
been consistently ranked in the Top 10 Market Timers in
the U.S. by Timer Digest since 1990.
# 2 Stock Market Timer in
1991: # 2 Long Term Market Timer in U.S.
1991: # 1 Gold Timer (Gold Timer of the Year).
1992: # 1 Gold Timer last 2 Year Period.
1992: # 1 Stock Market Timer last 3 Year Period.
1992: # 3 Stock Market Timer last 4 Year Period.
1993: # 1 Gold Market Timer last 3 Year Period.
1993: # 2 Long Term Stock Market Timer 3 Yr. Period.
1993: # 5 Stock Market Timer last 4 Year Period.
1994: # 5 Gold Timer last 12 months. May, 1994
1995, 1996, 1997: Did not publish, so was not tracked.
1998: #10 Stock Market Timer in U.S.
1999: # 2 Bond Timer last 12 months. July, 1999
1999: # 4 Gold Timer last 12 months Sept., 1999
1999: # 3 Stock Market Timer last 6 months Nov., 1999
2000: # 3 Stock Market Timer last six months Jan., 2000
2001: # 4 Stock market Timer last 6 months August, 2001
2001: # 3 Bond Timer last 12 months. August, 2001
2002: # 1 Stock Market Timer last 12 months. April 8, 2002
2002: # 3 Stock Market Timer last 12 months, July, 2002.
2003: # 1 Gold Timer last 12 months. September, 2003
2003: # 4 Stock Market Timer last 3 months. August, 2003
2004: # 2 Gold Timer last 12 months. February, 2004
2004: # 9 Stock Market Timer last 3 months, May, 2004
2004: # 2 Bond Timer last 12 months, May, 2004
2005: #2 Gold Timer last 12 months Nov. 2005
2006: #5 Bond Timer last 12 months Dec., 2006
2008: #4 Stock Market Timer last six months. August, 2008.
2009: #9 Stock Market Timer 12 months. April, 2009.
2010: #1 Gold Timer 12 months. October, 2010.
2011: #3 Stock Market Timer 3 months. June, 2011.
2011: #2 Bond Timer 12 months. July, 2011.
Book: Authored Riding the Bear - How to Prosper in the Coming
Bear Market! Released March, 1999, predicting the worst
bear market since 1929-32 was just around the corner. The Dow topped out just
9 months later on January 14, 2000.
Called the Nasdaq top
and advised selling it short in early
March 2000 as it passed 5,000 predicting it was about to
plunge 35% to 3,300. (Confirmed by an article in Barron's March 6,
2000 issue). The Nasdaq topped out just four days later, on March
10, ending its great 1990s bull market, with an even larger plunge
than forecast, and has recovered only half of its losses even
11 years later.
Gave a buy signal
for a "significant bear market rally" April 2, 2001!
bottomed just two days later, on April 4. Eight weeks later the S&P 500
was up 19%, the Nasdaq up 41%.
Took the profits from that rally
in June, 2001, and with a sell signal
on July 6, 2001, moved subscribers to 100%
positioning for the downside with short-sales, etc., in
anticipation of a resumption of the bear market.
after the terrorist attacks, took the profits from the downside
on September 20 and 21 (2001), which were the exact
two days of the market's September bottom.
in spite of the terrorist attacks that had everyone spooked, gave a buy signal on October
3, 2001 for another significant
rally. The Nasdaq was up 44%, and the S&P 500 up 23% just
two months later.
Then gave a sell signal on April 24,
2002, which was followed by six straight months down to the October, 2002
final bottom of the bear market.
Then gave a buy signal on October
17, 2002, calling for a substantial rally, which
would "likely be the beginning of the next bull market".
Which it was.
Developed the Seasonal Timing
Strategy© in 1998, which had a
compounded total return over the last 12 years (from 1999 through
2010) of more than 7 times
return of the S&P 500 (when 85% of professional
money-managers and mutual fund managers fail to even match the
S&P 500 over the long term). Further it did so with 50% of
market risk and just two trades a year. For more information on how and why it works
Book: Authored the 2007 book
Market the Easy Way - Seasonal Timing Strategies That Double the
Market! which explains several short-term,
intermediate-term, and long-term seasonal strategies, and provides
important information on secular bull markets and secular bear
markets, and why in 2007 another bull market top was probably
Called the early March,
2008 bottom of the first leg down of the 2007-2008 bear market,
making profits from the subsequent bear market rally off that
Then called the top of
that rally almost to the day in May, 2008, took our profits from
that rally, and repositioned for the downside.
For 2008 our Market-Timing Strategy portfolio was up 9.2% for the
year, in that terrible bear market year in which the S&P 500 lost
38.5% of its value, the Dow lost 33.8% of its value, the Nasdaq
lost 40.5% of its value, and even 'best investor in the world'
Warren Buffett was down 31.8%. It put us on the Hulbert Financial
Digest's Top-Ten Newsletters of the Year list.
Then called the bottom of the severe 2007-2009 bear market within
a few days of the March 9, 2009 bottom. In fact, while not issuing
an official buy signal until March 16, we actually recommended
that subscribers move our then 70% cash position to 70% invested
on March 10 because the market was so oversold.
However, we took our profits too soon, and moved to downside
positioning in 'inverse' etf's against the market, and kept them
too long when the market continued higher. So we had a loss of 9%
for 2009, a year when the market was up.
And in 2010 we struggled again, as we were concerned that the
market was only being held up artificially by Fed's easy money
policies, and concerned about a potential serious market
correction. So we were down 9% again.
In a recent article and issue of the Hulbert Financial
Digest, Mark Hulbert wrote that:
"Most investors still insist that it's entirely
realistic to expect that a market-beating advisor will not lose money
in any given year. That's totally unrealistic. Of the nearly 200
equity-oriented portfolios HDF has monitored over several decades, not
one has beaten the market over any ten-year period and also avoided
suffering through losing years. It's not even close in fact."
"On average each decade's top market-beaters experienced
2.5 losing calendar years along the way."
Absolutely no one has ever been right all the time, or has
escaped periodic rough patches. Not any professional money-manager,
mutual fund manager, hedge fund manager, or investment advisor, not
even Warren Buffett, who has been down several times over the last 15
years, and by as much as 50%, before getting back on track.
Or as the VP of Research at Morningstar Inc., the mutual
fund tracking service, has written, "When choosing a mutual fund
most investors look at which funds had the best performance over the
last one or two years. But research shows they'd be better off
selecting from the list of worst performing funds, since they are
probably due to get back on track, while the best performers are
probably due to run into a reversal to the mean."
And so yes, our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy
under-performed the market in 2009 and again in 2010.
But in 2011 we are clearly back on track, and expect that we
have had our turn at two under-performing years and are now back on
track for the long-term again.
Our goal is not only to help
you make profits from both rallies and corrections, but also to
help you be street smart! You'll never buy low
and sell high listening to brokerage firm and mutual fund
spokesmen, and the media that kowtows to them!
Let our research and
market timing help you continue to make gains, but also
protect your assets from the periodic losses that buy
& hold investors are guaranteed to suffer.
Recommendations are based on our best
judgment and opinions but no warranty is given or implied as to their
reliability. It is each reader's responsibility to decide
which, if any, of our opinions or recommendations are suitable for
their own individual situation, and in what manner to use the
information. Past performance does
not guarantee future performance or prevent losses.
© Asset Management Research Corp. -- ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.